Elon Musk’s SpaceXAI released Grok 4.5 on Wednesday, its first public model since the SpaceX-xAI merger closed in February and SpaceX’s pending $60 billion deal to acquire Cursor. It targets coders, engineers, and what the company calls “knowledge workers”—a category that apparently covers everyone from software developers to lawyers reviewing contracts to finance teams building Excel models.

The company’s pitch isn’t that it’s the best model. It’s that it’s cheap, for a western model at least. Grok 4.5 costs $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output. Claude Opus 4.8, Anthropic’s primary flagship, runs $5 input and $25 output. GPT 5.6 Sol, OpenAI’s new top-tier model that also launched Wednesday, is priced at $5 input and $30 output.

Musk posted on X and clarified where his new model actually sits. He called it “roughly comparable to Opus 4.7, but much faster.” Opus 4.7 is Anthropic’s previous flagship; Opus 4.8 has since succeeded it. Claude Fable 5 is now Anthropic’s top of the line offering.

He framed that as a deliberate tradeoff: speed and cost over raw capability, with engineers at Tesla and SpaceX as the proof of real-world utility.

What the benchmarks actually show

SpaceXAI published four benchmark results at launch, and the picture is mixed. DeepSWE 1.1 measures how reliably an AI can close real software bugs submitted by developers, using a standardized testing setup so models can be compared fairly, scored by percentage of issues fixed. Grok 4.5 scored 53%, behind Claude Opus 4.8 at 59% and GPT 5.5 at 67%. Claude Fable 5, Anthropic’s frontier model, topped the chart at 70%.

On SWE Bench Pro, another benchmark that measures a collection of software engineering problems scored by resolution rate, Grok 4.5 posted 64.7%, enough to beat GPT 5.5’s 58.6% on that particular test. Opus 4.8 still leads at 69.2%, and Fable 5 sits at 80.4%.

The company’s benchmarks compare against GPT 5.5, not GPT 5.6, because the latter also launched Wednesday, hours after Grok 4.5’s announcement.

SpaceXAI trained Grok 4.5 in collaboration with the recently acquired Cursor AI on tens of thousands of Nvidia GB300 GPUs inside Colossus, the Memphis supercomputer with total capacity across more than 200,000 GPUs. The labs whose models sit above it on those same benchmarks don’t own anything close to that hardware. The model that came out is competitive, just not first.

That pattern has followed Grok across multiple releases. SpaceXAI has consistently turned up with enormous compute and third-place scores. What changed with Grok 4.5 is the pricing and the training signal.

Where the case for it actually holds

The better argument isn’t raw performance; it’s efficiency math. On SWE Bench Pro tasks, Grok 4.5 used an average of 15,954 output tokens to complete each job. Opus 4.8 burned through 67,020 tokens for the same work, a 4.2x gap.

For teams running AI at volume, that difference compounds into real savings on top of the already-lower price per token. Even with Grok 4.5 scoring so low in the quality benchmarks, cheaper tokens and more efficiency in usage allow for more iterations without spending so much.

The model also runs at 80 tokens per second, which is fast-model territory. Grok 4.5 was trained on developer session data from Cursor, including debugging traces and real code edits rather than static repositories. As Musk admitted in court, xAI’s training practices have drawn scrutiny before; this time the pipeline runs through a platform SpaceX is in the process of buying outright.

For developers running high-volume coding tasks, the math works: roughly Opus 4.7 capability at 60% less per input token. For anyone chasing the frontier, Claude Fable 5 leads every category SpaceXAI chose to publish. Our quick test using Grok build on Hermes was underwhelming for creative writing and acceptable on a simple coding task.

The model is available via API, on Hermes and Grok build with half a million tokens of context (a little bit less than 400,000 words). European users will have to wait before using it; SpaceXAI says Grok 4.5 reaches the EU in mid-July.

Key takeaways:

• War, rising oil prices and Strategy’s Bitcoin sales put extra pressure on BTC’s $60,000 support.
• Strategy’s Bitcoin sales and fears that a global regulatory crackdown on crypto is being reignited are adding to fragile crypto market conditions.

Bitcoin traded down 3.5% on Wednesday as new developments in the US-Iran war pushed oil prices higher and Japan’s bond markets faced renewed stress. That combination triggered broader de-risking across markets. At the same time, concerns over potential Bitcoin sales from Strategy intensified, with traders now bracing for a possible correction below $60,000.

Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s failed attempt to reclaim $64,500 on Monday coincided with a downtrend in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index. However, the stock market recovered some of its losses on Wednesday while Bitcoin was unable to bounce back from the $62,000 level. This underperformance suggests something else might be pressuring the cryptocurrency.

The surge in Brent crude oil to $74 from $68 the prior week raised inflationary risks due to disruptions in energy supplies following the official breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. US President Donald Trump declared the deal “over” after US strikes targeted Iranian sites in response to vessel attacks.

Higher energy costs feed directly into broader price pressures, reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts and limiting odds of economic stimulus packages. 

Implied odds for FED Funds target rate on Sept. 16. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Traders are currently pricing 69% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 42% one month prior. This environment weighs heavily on risk assets, with Bitcoin still not widely perceived as an effective hedge.

Global economic uncertainty amid Strategy’s sell pressure

Adding to the cautious mood, President Trump demanded an end to US trade with Spain at the NATO summit, labeling the key ally a “wasted cause” for failing to commit to new defense spending targets. Such trade frictions risk slowing global economic activity and amplifying fears of global economic contraction.

Japan 10-year government bonds yield. Source: TradingView

In Japan, government bond yields jumped to a 30-year high, reflecting fears over a lack of central bank independence as the government attempts to adjust the Japan Central Bank’s policy mandate to “achieve a stronger economy.” Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, which heightens the risk of global contagion.

The latest round of Bitcoin sales, totaling $216 million, announced by Strategy (MSTR US) on Monday, negatively surprised many after it was revealed that they occurred outside the core $1.25 billion Monetization Program. The company’s 8-K filings stated the program accounts only for proceeds used to fund its cash reserves.

Investors now fear persistent selling pressure from Strategy as the company manages its capital structure and debt obligations, with total annual dividends of $1.76 billion alone. Moreover, Strategy holds over $3.8 billion in convertible debt with the earliest call date before April 2027.

Related: Lyn Alden says Bitcoin needs no savior as Strategy sells $216M of BTC

Strategy convertible debt maturity and market value, USD. Source: Strategy

On the regulatory front, documents show India’s central bank strongly backing policies that lean toward prohibiting crypto activities, including barring banks from any exposure to virtual assets to safeguard financial stability. The India tax department additionally highlighted risks of evasion.

The signals of tightening global oversight add another layer of negative pressure on Bitcoin’s price and market sentiment. Bitcoin bears remain in control, with risk appetite diminishing due to socio-political instability, prospects of a more restrictive US Fed monetary stance, and Strategy’s ongoing cash needs.

Sentiment is likely to remain fragile, making a retest of the $60,000 support level increasingly probable in the near term.

Crypto venture firm Paradigm has raised a $1.2 billion fund to invest in AI, robotics, crypto, and other technologies, broadening its focus beyond digital assets.

While crypto remains central to Paradigm’s business, the San Francisco-based firm said Wednesday its fourth fund will expand investments into AI, autonomous hardware, and other emerging technologies while continuing its research-driven approach.

“$1.2B to invest in steep exponentials. 8 years ago we were backed by people who believed in the crypto frontier,” Paradigm managing partner Alana Palmedo wrote on X. “Now we’re doubling down as frontiers are colliding across AI, crypto, space, deep tech, energy. Grateful to our partners.”

Founded in 2018 by Matt Huang and Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam, Paradigm became one of crypto’s largest venture investors. The firm raised a $2.5 billion crypto fund in 2021, followed by an $850 million early-stage blockchain fund in 2024.

“Our approach is to stay close to the metal–researching, building, and investing alongside founders, first in crypto, and now across AI, robotics, and other frontiers,” the company said in a statement.

Other investments Paradigm noted included autonomous drone developer Zipline, space defense startup True Anomaly, and Nous Research, the AI company behind Hermes Agent.

On the crypto side, Paradigm pointed to investments in decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, prediction market platform Kalshi, and Tempo, a stablecoin-focused blockchain it co-founded with Stripe.

The firm also highlighted internal projects including Ethereum development tools Foundry and Reth, AI agent project Centaur, and EVMbench, a blockchain security benchmark developed with OpenAI.

The news comes as crypto companies are building more infrastructure for AI agents that can move money and complete transactions online. Companies including Coinbase and Stripe have developed payment tools aimed at letting AI agents use wallets, stablecoins, and other financial infrastructure to complete tasks with limited human involvement.

“Sufficiently steep exponentials are indistinguishable from magic, and we see more global-scale exponentials at work than ever before,” the firm said. “This era favors those open-minded enough to throw out existing playbooks and recompute new views of reality frequently. It’s a mindset we share with the founders we back. “

Tokenized stock transfers more than doubled over the past month to $8.41 billion, according to RWA.xyz data, as activity in onchain equity markets continued to accelerate.

The sector’s distributed value also climbed 43% over the same period to $2.16 billion, while the number of holders increased 17% to more than 409,000, according to the data platform.

Growth was led by several of the market’s largest tokenization platforms. Figure’s distributed value surged 935% over the past 30 days, while Securitize’s rose 332% and xStocks’ increased around 62%.

Ondo remained the largest tokenized stock platform by distributed value at roughly $846 million, followed by xStocks with about $708 million, Securitize with $306 million and Figure with $239 million, according to the data.

Tokenized stocks. Source: RWA.xyz

Tokenized equities outperformed other segments of the RWA market. Distributed value for tokenized US Treasurys, the sector’s largest asset class, was essentially flat over the past month, while the broader tokenized RWA market grew about 4% to $33.5 billion.

Related: Tradeweb executes real-time tokenized US Treasury transaction on Canton Network

Crypto and Wall Street race to tokenize stocks

The tokenized stock market has grown from roughly $378 million to $2.16 billion over the past year, a gain of about 471%, according to RWA.xyz data.

The growth has coincided with a wave of new tokenized equity offerings across crypto exchanges. During the SpaceX IPO, Kraken, Bybit and Bitget Wallet used xStocks infrastructure to offer tokenized pre-IPO access. Although customer demand exceeded the available share allocation, it highlighted growing investor appetite for blockchain-based securities.

The momentum has spread to public markets. Earlier this month, Securitize became the first newly public company to issue tokenized versions of its shares on the Solana and Avalanche blockchains as it debuted on the New York Stock Exchange.

Some of the biggest names in traditional finance have also been accelerating their own tokenization efforts. In May, the DTCC announced plans to launch a tokenized securities service in October after receiving regulatory approval to offer tokenization services on pre-approved blockchains under a three-year pilot.

Source: The_DTCC

Earlier this year, the New York Stock Exchange and parent company Intercontinental Exchange unveiled plans for a platform to trade tokenized stocks and ETFs, while Nasdaq partnered with Kraken and infrastructure firm Backed to develop technology linking traditional equities with blockchain networks.

As competition between crypto-native and traditional finance firms intensifies, ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher has urged regulators to allow traditional exchanges to offer 24/7 onchain perpetual futures, arguing regulated venues should be able to compete with crypto-native platforms.

Magazine: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks, Ether eyes ‘selling wave’: Market Moves

The crypto market enters the second week of July in rough shape.

Bitcoin is holding on, but just barely, in the low $60,000s after briefly touching 21-month lows under $58,000 last week. Ethereum is below $1,750, down around 4% on the day, and more than 30% in the last year. The broader market is down, of course, and altcoins are down harder.

The total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH shed 30% since January. Crypto IPOs—Gemini, Bullish, BitGo—have imploded since their debut.

The mood is, understandably, grim.

But grim moods have a long history of being wrong at exactly the wrong time. Every major Bitcoin bear cycle since 2009 has ended with a flush, an extreme fear reading, and a moment where the obvious trade looked like going short.

Bitcoin has now been through four such cycles, and in nearly every case, a pre-halving compression phase—where price grinds lower and sentiment deteriorates before the next supply shock—preceded the next leg up. The next halving—when mining rewards, and therefore the supply of newly minted Bitcoin, are cut by 50%—is roughly 21 months away, which historically is when accumulation starts making uncomfortable sense.

The difference this cycle? Crypto is now mainstream.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional balance sheets, formal accounting standards changes, and a legislative framework for digital assets have all arrived since the last halving. Bitcoin now has a fundamentally different institutional status than it did when BTC was a niche hobby. That doesn’t eliminate volatility—it just means the players in this bear market are wearing different suits than last time. Whether that speeds up or delays the bottom is an open question. The charts, for now, have their answer.

Bitcoin price: optimism with an asterisk

Bitcoin opened the week at $63,587, hit a high of $64,657, then closed lower, meaning that the bulls showed up, tried to push through, and failed. Bitcoin is trading hands at $61,749, down 2.89% in the week.

It’s important to note that BTC fell to $58,035 just days ago—a 21-month low—before bouncing.

The resistance zone that stopped the spike is exactly the one everyone was watching. The $64–65K area has been acting as a ceiling since early June, and this week’s candle barely kissed it before retreating. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are placing nearly 73% odds that Bitcoin touches $55,000 before $84,000. The sentiment among predictors flipped on June 2—before that, the smart money was leaning bullish.

Zooming out on the weekly chart, the Fibonacci retracement (natural support and resistance zones that happen during a trend) of that entire downleg from $82,833 places the $73,245 and $70,284 zone as with the most activity.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 30.7. The ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction on scale from 0 to 100. When it’s above 25, this tells traders that an actual trend is in place, and 30.7 is solidly there. Based on directionality, bears are in control.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 36.8. RSI measures momentum, similarly on a 0–100 scale: Above 70 signals overbought conditions and usually triggers profit-taking; below 30 signals oversold conditions that typically attract buyers. At 36.8, Bitcoin is close to oversold but hasn’t crossed the threshold yet. The technical setup suggests selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion—but “approaching” isn’t “done.” Right now markets appear to be panic selling.

One note of caution for the bears: The picture painted by the exponential moving averages remains bullish. Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average, or EMA, is still above its 200-week EMA. When this happens, it forms a pattern that traders refer to as a “golden cross,” which in this case is technically still intact. But it’s narrowing fast. The inverse of a golden cross is a death cross, and if it forms on the weekly chart it would represent a structural shift that very few Bitcoin cycles have survived without a deeper flush first.

Thankfully for permabulls, this has not happened in a while.

Reasons for the bullish case are mostly fundamental:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs just snapped a 10-day, $2.7 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million single-day inflow on July 2, and have since pulled in roughly $510 million. On-chain data from Glassnode shows long-term holders have returned to accumulation after an extended period of distribution, with buying activity broadening across wallet cohorts.

The Fear & Greed Index at 23, registering “extreme fear,” is historically a contrarian signal—not a guarantee, but a pattern. Some indicators approaching oversold from the weekly chart suggest the selling may be closer to exhausted than just starting.

For the bearish scenario, the technicals are more apparent for those focusing on shorter time frames:

Bitcoin failed to break the exact resistance everyone was watching. ADX at 30.7 with bearish directional index confirms an active downtrend with real momentum. Year-to-date ETF outflows are still negative. Citi downgraded its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $82,000 with a bear case at $53,000. The Fibonacci target below current price at $57,735 is still the most visible technical magnet on the chart. Myriad’s prediction market—where money, not opinions, speaks—says 72.3% chance of $55K first.

Ethereum price: The death cross nobody wanted

Ethereum is trading at $1,729.7, down 3.06% from its $1,784 weekly open. That number is painful enough. But the bigger story isn’t the weekly candle—it’s what just happened on the weekly chart under the hood.

Ethereum has just confirmed a weekly death cross. The 50-week exponential moving average has crossed below the 200-week EMA for the first time in years. The upcoming days/weeks will be key to define positions for long-term trades if the cross extends and is not invalidated.

On shorter timeframes, death crosses happen regularly and can reverse quickly. On the weekly chart, they represent months of structural deterioration, and they tend to define entire market phases rather than single moves.

Ethereum’s daily chart has been in death cross since November 2025, when ETH peaked near $4,100 before beginning its extended decline. That daily bearish structure has now propagated to the weekly frame—a longer-timeframe confirmation that the bear trend isn’t a blip.

Traders on Myriad appear as bearish on ETH as they do on BTC, likewise pricing in a 72% chance Ethereum hits $1,500 before $3,000. These odds flipped in May—before that, the market was closer to 50-50 between the two outcomes. The gap between options is now at its largest since June, suggesting conviction has moved firmly into the bearish camp among traders putting actual money on the line.

The Fibonacci retracement on ETH’s downleg from $2,465.8 to $1,505.1 defines the zone between $2,098.9 and $1,985.5 as the ones with the most activity to watch for. Current price at $1,729.7 is pinned near the Fib level at $1,731.8. Below that, the next meaningful technical reference is the $1,500 price zone. That’s exactly the doom scenario Myriad traders are betting on.

The ADX reads 26.5 with bearish directionality—same story as Bitcoin, just more pronounced. A trend is confirmed, the direction is down, and the bears have the momentum. RSI at 36.9 mirrors Bitcoin’s reading almost exactly: bearish, approaching oversold but not there yet.

Some hopium for the bulls: Weekly death crosses on Ethereum have historically appeared around the final stages of bear market cycles—not the middle of them. In prior cycles, the three-day death cross frequently coincided with or immediately preceded significant bottoms. In other words, this is the panic zone in which many people wait to buy the asset for cheap.

If that pattern holds, the pain may be closer to ending than beginning. ETH spot ETFs turned positive on July 2 with $29.1 million in inflows. RSI is approaching oversold on the weekly—a zone that has historically been a strong accumulation signal for patient buyers.

Now for the bears: A weekly death cross is a new structural reality, not a temporary signal—it took months to form and typically takes months to reverse. US spot ETH ETFs logged a record 17 consecutive days of net outflows totaling $401 million in May, followed by another 10-day streak in June.

The Fibonacci target of $1,500 is technically the next major level, and it’s the exact number Myriad’s 72.3% majority is betting on. Citi’s bear case for ETH is $1,094. The weekly structure doesn’t give bulls much to work with until the price of Ethereum reclaims the $2,000 area—a 15.6% climb from current levels that would require a sustained trend reversal that no indicator yet confirms.

Today in crypto, Adam Back’s Bitcoin treasury company heads back to the negotiating table over its planned SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners, the European Securities and Markets Authority launches a review of crypto custody providers following MiCA’s transition and StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson reignites debate over Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply cap.

Adam Back’s Bitcoin treasury SPAC deal with Cantor returns to the negotiating table

Adam Back’s Bitcoin treasury company is renegotiating its planned SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners I, delaying its anticipated public listing as both sides seek terms that better reflect current market conditions.

The Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), founded by the Blockstream CEO, and Cantor Equity Partners I have scrapped the original 2025 merger terms and will negotiate a revised agreement, though neither side disclosed what changes are on the table. The move also postpones a shareholder meeting that was set to approve the transaction.

Under the original deal, BSTR planned to contribute more than 30,000 BTC alongside $1.5 billion in PIPE financing, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission had already cleared the registration statement in June.

The revision comes as enthusiasm for Bitcoin treasury SPACs has cooled, with Cantor reportedly broadening its focus beyond crypto-focused vehicles. The development follows tokenization company Securitize’s recent NYSE debut through a separate Cantor-backed SPAC, though its shares have since fallen sharply from their post-listing highs.

Source: BSTR

ESMA turns spotlight on crypto custody risks after MiCA transition

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), a key EU regulator supporting the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, is launching a dedicated process for reviewing crypto custody providers.

ESMA plans to conduct a common supervisory action (CSA) focused on the operational resilience of crypto-asset service providers (CASPs), with a specific emphasis on custody services, according to an official announcement on Wednesday.

“The CSA will assess the maturity of CASPs’ digital operational resilience frameworks in relation to custody activities,” ESMA said, adding that the reviews will focus on areas including key and storage management, alongside other operational risks.

The move comes shortly after the end of MiCA’s transition phase on July 1, prompting increased attention to how EU authorities will supervise compliance with the new framework, including potential enforcement questions.

StarkWare CEO suggests 4% annual Bitcoin inflation to replace 21 million cap

The debate over whether Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap should be lifted has resurfaced after StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson suggested Tuesday that it should replaced with a 4% annual issuance rate.

In a post to X on Tuesday, Ben-Sasson said the current 21 million cap “doesn’t make sense” because private keys are lost over time and “as time goes to infinity, all keys will be lost.”

Crypto wallet hardware provider Ledger estimated in November that up to 4 million Bitcoin had been burned or permanently lost. Ben-Sasson said he still supports a hard upper bound on Bitcoin’s supply, and that a 4% annual inflation rate roughly tracks the growth of the human population.

Bitcoin’s fixed cap has long been one of its core selling points, underpinning the “digital gold” narrative and drawing on Austrian economics, where a fixed money supply protects against monetary debasement and, in theory, preserves purchasing power over time. Many Bitcoiners have argued that changing the cap would undo the very thing that makes Bitcoin unique. 

Source: Eli Ben-Sasson

Bitcoiners have also said the loss of private keys improves Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics because one can’t sell what one doesn’t have access to. One of the biggest advocates of this feature is Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor, who plans to burn his Bitcoin private keys upon his death as a “pro-rata contribution” to other Bitcoin holders, making their coins scarcer in the process.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades slightly above $62,000 and is down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours amid a risk-off mood across global markets. The pressure is not coming from crypto exclusively and is more so attributed to a sharp selloff in semiconductor and AI stocks. 

Renewed profit-taking from Samsung sent Asian markets reeling overnight, and military escalation between the US and Iran sent oil up around 5%. As a result, US stocks opened lower, and on Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June meeting, a report traders typically watch closely for clues on the timing of any rate cut. 

Currently, markets price roughly a 73% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its next meeting on July 29, but the major takeaway for investors will be how the tone of the minutes frames the Fed’s view on inflation and interest rates.  

Bitcoin buyers quickly became sellers 

Bitcoin’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) showed traders buying on Monday, with futures CVD adding about $585 million and spot CVD adding nearly $119 million, for a combined $705 million in net buying as BTC rallied above $64,000. 

By Wednesday, the mood had shifted to reflect traders’ apprehension and the need to cut risk ahead of oil’s advance, the semiconductor selloff and the pending release of the Fed minutes. Futures market selling accelerated to nearly $500 million and spot followed with a $86 million sell volume. 

BTC/USD spot and futures CVD. Source: Hyblock

Bitcoin’s funding rate and open interest dropped, reflecting traders’ choice to cut positioning, but the week-long trend of positive funding rates remains intact. 

BTC/USD funding rate, open interest. Source: Hyblock

Liquidations have also stayed relatively small in dollar terms, but they are one-sided. Wednesday’s forced selling was almost entirely on the long side, with roughly $47 million in long liquidations versus about $4 million in short liquidations. 

Hyblock’s liquidation data shows a large cluster of long positions near $61,000 and if Bitcoin trades down into that zone, those forced sales can briefly accelerate the move lower. 

A trend reversal is not confirmed 

Although Bitcoin bulls put in a good effort, absorbing dips to $60,000 and below, and fresh flows from spot markets and BTC ETF buying show investor appetite in the current range, the bulk of the price move remains driven by futures activity. 

Wednesday’s price action demonstrates how fast conviction and price can unravel when the primary fuel behind the move is futures-driven, and sentiment across the crypto market remains in the “fear” category according to the Crypto Fear & Greed index.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Beyond the geopolitical and Fed-related impact on intra-day price action, Strategy’s recent sale of 3,588 BTC and the fact that Bitcoin’s current price is below its $74,582 average price have cast an ominous cloud over the wider market as investors grapple with the reality that the largest BTC treasury could become a frequent seller. 

Wall Street’s favorite crypto vehicles have notched net inflows for three consecutive days, reversing a record slump as investors cautiously wade back into Bitcoin.

Exchange-traded funds tied to the digital asset have pulled in roughly $510 million since Friday, marking a shift in momentum from the “largest run of outflows we’ve ever seen,” James Butterfill, head of research at asset manager CoinShares, told Decrypt.

“It looks like sentiment might be turning a corner,” he said. “They are the largest inflows we’ve seen since the outflows began in early May, suggesting we’re maybe through the worst of it.”

Despite their overwhelming popularity in recent years, Bitcoin ETFs have shed $8 billion over the past eight weeks, with investors seeking shelter as the digital asset plunged to a 21-month low. Amid the record bleed, year-to-date outflows deepened to $2.8 billion.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin changed hands around $62,000, a 4% increase over the past week, according to CoinGecko. Earlier this month, the digital asset fell as low as $58,000, exacerbating Bitcoin’s tumble from $126,000 in October.

On a proportional basis, Butterfill said the latest streak of outflows represented 8% of assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs, mirroring activity during cycle lows in 2018. He described this year’s drawdown as similar to one last February that saw investors yank $5.2 billion.

For the most part, investors who have allocated to Bitcoin ETFs are underwater. Based on the average cost basis for allocations to the products, the average buyer gained exposure when Bitcoin was valued around $83,800, according to Glassnode.

So-called whales—who typically hold 1,000 Bitcoin or more—have sold more than $40 billion worth of Bitcoin since the digital asset’s price peaked last year, Butterfill said. He noted that the source of negative price pressure has abated as of late.

Although Bitcoin’s largest holders have shifted gears, Butterfill cautioned that expectations of tighter monetary policy in the U.S. could prevent Bitcoin from breaking out of its current range, as the Federal Reserve continues fighting inflation amid conflict in the Middle East.

“We’re not in a situation where we can say the Fed is on the cusp of cutting rates, and that would be very supportive to Bitcoin,” he added. “Bitcoin remains very, very sensitive to the inflation outlook, and by proxy, the Iran war and the outlook from the Fed.”

Although the sell-off for Bitcoin ETFs has set records, its intensity hasn’t matched moments last year. Amid the latest drawdown, daily net outflows have peaked at $733 million, according to CoinGlass, a threshold surpassed a handful of times last year.

The Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), founded by Blockstream CEO Adam Back, wants to change the terms of its merger agreement with Cantor Equity Partners for a public offering.

According to a Wednesday announcement, BSTR and Cantor Equity Partners I, the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) created by financial services giant Cantor Fitzgerald, scrapped the original terms of a 2025 merger agreement and will negotiate a new deal. Although the details were not included in the announcement, both companies said that they intended to negotiate terms that “better reflected market conditions.”

Source: BSTR

A shareholder meeting scheduled for Friday intended to address the SPAC merger and a public offering was postponed indefinitely. The companies said that they would “provide further details in due course.”

BSTR’s initial deal included contributing more than 30,000 Bitcoin (BTC) and $1.5 billion in PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) financing. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recognized the registration statement for the agreement in June, with many expecting the public offering soon to follow.

Related: Capital B raises $1.3M from Adam Back for Bitcoin strategy

According to a February report from Institutional Investor, Cantor was giving itself “a lot of wiggle room” in SPAC deals, no longer keeping its sole focus on Bitcoin treasury companies like BSTR and Twenty One Capital, which completed a $3.6 billion merger deal with Cantor in 2025.

“A Bitcoin treasury SPAC doesn’t look so good now,” said SPACInsider founder and CEO Kristi Marvin, according to Institutional Investor. “Six months from now, I don’t know — maybe.”

Securitize went public with Cantor SPAC last week

The news of the BSTR-Cantor merger potentially falling apart followed tokenization company Securitize making its debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) after a similar SPAC deal with a Cantor entity.

Securitize, which has $4 billion in assets under management, got approval for a SPAC deal with Cantor Equity Partners II from the SEC in June and began trading on the New York Stock Exchange a week after shareholders signed off. The shares, trading under the ticker SECZ, fell to $7.42 apiece on Wednesday, about 40% below its July 2 closing price of $12.30.

Magazine: Has Strategy’s capital overhaul put an end to ‘death spiral’ fears?